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Ramblings of a retiree in France
Christmas data, the ‘English variant’ of Covid-19 and the vaccination latest – health experts say that this week is key in determining whether France will need to enact stricter health measures.
Since lockdown in France was lifted on 15 December, health restrictions here in France have remained broadly unchanged. A much-hoped-for reopening of bars, restaurants, gyms and cultural centres later in January has been ruled out and the only extra restriction put in place has been the introduction of an earlier curfew (06:00pm) in 23 of France’s 96 mainland départements, including here on the French Riviera.
But there are two factors that could change this – a post-Christmas spike and the variant anglais, the new and seemingly more contagious variant of the virus first identified in the UK. Health experts have said that key data on both of these things will be arriving on the health minister’s desk this week, influencing what the government does next as we’re still in an extremely unstable epidemiological situation which could turn into exponential growth.
Festive Season
French health officials have been worried about what they call the ‘Thanksgiving effect’ – the big spike in cases seen in the USA after people travelled to spend the Thanksgiving holiday with friends and family. In France the lockdown was lifted just before Christmas and people were allowed to travel over the holidays, although restrictions including an 8pm curfew remained in place and people were advised to limit private gatherings to six people. Nonetheless, there is concern that increased travel and socialising will lead to a spike in cases.
Statistics from over the holiday period fluctuated with lower reporting on weekends and public holidays and cumulative case numbers reported on several days. Testing saw a big increase in the week before Christmas – three million people were tested in a single week, the highest number of tests done so far – but fell over the holiday period, leading to variations in the positivity rate.
French schools reopened last Monday (4 January), and most people went back to work on the same date so the Health Ministry now has a week’s worth of ‘normal’ data that will establish what, if any, effect Christmas has had on case numbers. Overall, the weekly average for case numbers last week was 15,859 new cases per day, compared to 13,258 the previous week, although this hides big regional variations and an increasingly concerning situation in some parts of eastern France.
The ‘English mutation’
A new and potentially more contagious variant of the Covid-19 virus first identified across the channel is also causing concern across Europe. France has identified several clusters of the mutation, including in Paris, Brittany and a group in Marseille reported to be an extended family.
Laboratories have stepped up genetic sequencing of PCR tests to get a clearer picture of how many cases there are in France and the country’s UK border remains closed to non-essential travel ‘until further notice’.
Anyone entering France from the UK needs a negative Covid test, but there are concerns that the new variant was already spreading in the country before extra testing requirements were introduced.
A study by the National Reference Centre for Respiratory Viruses in Lyon, expected at the beginning of the week, will make it possible to estimate the number of cases in France.
The mutation does not seem to produce more serious symptoms, but is said to be more infectious, potentially leading to more cases and the saturation of health services.
Vaccines
After a widely-criticized sluggish start, France will continue to speed up its vaccination programme. From tomorrow, people aged over 70 will be able to make appointments by phone or online at sante.fr, with appointments starting on 18 January.
The first deliveries of the Moderna vaccine arrived in France on Monday andfrom today will available in clinics in the eastern parts of the country that have been hardest hit by the virus. However, the vaccination programme will not have a direct effect on case numbers over the next few weeks, so will not play a major part in decisions on extra restrictions.
What next?
The French government is holding several meetings this week to analyse the latest data and weigh up its options.
Also expected this week is the latest report from the advisory Scientific Council, dealing with proposed measures over the next three months. An announcement from the PM M Castex is expected towards the end of this week where all options – from closing shops and schools to a reintroduction of lockdown – will be on the table.
I’m making the most of what might be my last week of freedom by going out for a long walk or ride every day, just in case!
View from the Back 
Finally, some local stores were given the OK to provide the vaccine–by appointment only, of course. I don’t know what time these people get up, but the appointments are closed as soon as they open. It’s nuts.
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The system seems somewhat confusing. Here we can book one online or via an App.
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Thanks for this information Sheree! I live in a town near Paris and am looking forward to being vaccinated as soon as possible.
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You and me both Barbara.
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Interesting that the new variation (I’m not sure mutation is a correct term here) is getting the name “English” over in Europe. It’s showed up in California, Florida and a few other places here in the U.S. Maddeningly little news on it also, other than it’s far more contagious. It’s been reported that the Pfizer version of the vaccine is effective against this variation(s) also, but no word on the other versions.
If it makes you feel any better, vaccine distribution is a total mess here also. Trump was holding too much back so as to make sure people could get the required second dose. Now Biden is supposedly going to dump it all out there for distribution.
God forbid politicians find a sane middle ground and just increase production…
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Not worried about the vaccination programme in France as they’ve sped up now the proper procedures are in place. France is also using Pfizer vaccine. There now seems to be a number of mutations or variations: English, South African and now Brazilian.
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Now there is a South African variant and the beat goes on, where are the Chinese?
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Enjoy the fresh air and exercise while you can! The mutated virus has ripped through our town. My local hospital is at capacity and made national headlines yesterday. It’s awful how quickly the situation has deteriorated in Ireland since Christmas!
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I know and I’m so sorry to hear that. Take care
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‘Thanksgiving effect’ was just the beginning, maybe it should be called the ‘holiday effect’ as our numbers are in the statosphere and going higher post Christmas gathering. What a nightmare.
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So sorry to hear that Eliza
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I am hoping this vaccine works and we get back to our reality.
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Me too but it’ll be a while yet
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Soak up all the fresh air while you can!
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Don’t worry, I am
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Keep safe Sheree ❤️
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Don’t worry I will Elaine and you too.
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Interesting about the American Thanksgiving spike in cases. There was none in my state… and I hadn’t heard of one in any of the other 49, either. New Cases are on the way back down… about half what they were two weeks ago. Meaning no Christmas bump, also.
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There’s so much misinformation around Jim but I’m pleased to hear that we’ve definitely had a Christmas bump as has UK.
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There sure is, Sheree. Politicians playing CYA no doubt.
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Things are getting much worse here in our province of Ontario. If there is no change our whole health care system here could collapse by mid February, it’s almost collapsing now. Patients at hospitals are being shipped elsewhere because they can’t be looked after where they are. Our government has issued a ‘stay at home order’ starting today which means no going out except for essential reasons such as grocery shopping, medical appointments or going to the pharmacy, and short periods of outdoor exercise. Have a great day Sheree!😀😺
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Sorry to hear this Steve, please take care and stay safe.
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Yes, definitely trying to stay safe. That UK variant is here in our province too which causes more concern.
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It sounds like it is still pretty bad over in france! Its awful over here at the moment! So many cases and deaths, yesterday we had 63 deaths which is a huge number for our small country!
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France isn’t good but it’s largely under control. 6pm-6am curfew to be extended countrywide from tomorrow.
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Yes definitely get your walks or rides in, and stay safe ❤️
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Thanks Kellie
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I’m glad you’ll be able to get a few walks in before lockdown. In Ontario, Canada, they are re-tightening restrictions, but we don’t have a curfew system in place, at the moment.
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Fortunately no lockdown just an extension of the curfew across France.
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